Admissions Blog

Undergraduate Admissions Uncensored

The Birthrate Crisis, and How Colleges Should Respond

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The biggest stumbling block in education research is its lack of replicability.  In science, the same amount of vinegar plus the same amount of baking soda gives you the same result—and the same-sized result—no matter who does the experiment.  But take someone else’s methods and teaching materials, implement them the exact same way the first experimenter did, and you will likely get nothing even close to the same result.

A happy exception to this “it’s never the same” rule occurred in the 90s, when a number of studies showed, time after time, there was a way to significantly improve student learning—and it had nothing to do with changing curriculum, retraining teachers, or extending the school day.  This swath of studies showed, beyond a reasonable doubt, that the best way to improve student learning—especially in grades K-3—is to follow the magic recipe of 15 students or less with one teacher in one classroom.  Do that, and great things happen.

What has happened to this rare pillar of education reform?  Well, not much.  Once the magic recipe was discovered, administrators scoffed at the idea of dropping class size that low.  For that matter, so did taxpayers, who didn’t take long to realize that lower class size meant more classrooms and more teachers—and both cost more money.  As a result, education has largely turned its back on this piece of magic, except for some not-so-clever administrators who believe they can keep 30 kids in one classroom with a teacher and an aide and still maintain the ratio.

Since all three parts must be honored, this would be like doubling the baking soda and eggs in a cookie recipe without increasing the amount of flour.  You get something different, but you don’t get better cookies.  The magic recipe failed on its promise to deliver because the people in charge of schools—administrators and taxpayers—decided the change wasn’t worth the cost, offering instead some sleight of hand with ratios that satisfied most everyone, largely because Americans really don’t understand mathematics.

The leaders of our higher education systems are on the verge of making a similar error, with far more serious consequences.  It’s no secret that the birthrate in the US declined about 20 years ago, and is headed for a serious nose dive of the number of high school graduates in about 2025.  Since this isn’t exactly new news, one would think colleges would be looking at these numbers and saying something like “Fewer high school graduates means fewer college freshmen.  What should we do about it?”

Like the K-12 class size issue, the answer here is pretty easy.  No every high school senior goes to college right after high school, so there’s plenty of room to increase the number of college-bound seniors, and still maintain strong college enrollments.  The trick here lies in talking to students who don’t see college as part of their futures, and getting them to change their minds. If every high school student already went straight to college, this couldn’t be done; but that just isn’t the case.

As is often the case with answers that appear easy, this one has at least one major snag.  A very close read of most college recruiting literature shows it’s based on one big assumption; the student or family reading the literature is already convinced a four-year college is the answer for them, and they now simply need to sort out which ones they’ll consider.  They know about testing and application essays and degree requirements and different application deadlines, so it isn’t a question of “If College”.  It’s a question of “What College”.

Any student unsure about the benefits of four-year colleges would look at this admissions information and feel like they’ve walked into the middle of a three-hour movie; they know they have some catching up to do, but no one seems to want to help them, since they’re too busy watching the movie themselves. Given that mindset, you’d think most colleges—especially those that experienced freshman enrollment declines of up to 40 percent during COVID—would move heaven and earth to make sure they don’t end up as losers in the birthrate lottery.  A few new pamphlets, a different kind of open house, a new video or two, and a little admissions training, and you’re all set.

To date, that has not been the response of the higher education community.  Senior admissions officials tell me the general overall response has been to double down on an admissions strategy that includes making their institution the best choice, a strategy that turns what could be a bona fide effort at expanding college access into a zero-sum game.  This approach seems to glean support from the national papers who have always covered college admissions like there are only 25 colleges in the country.  The more “Ivies Report Record Application” stories they print, the more they feed the attitude that asks the question “Enrollment problem?  What enrollment problem?”

The real irony here is that the creation of a “Why College?” campaign for students new to the idea is fairly affordable and relatively easy.  Colleges that have like-minded missions and student bodies tend to be in the same athletic league.  Imagine what could happen if all colleges in one league pitched in a couple of admissions officers and a modest amount of cash to create, for example, The Big Ten Guide to the Benefits of College.  Since the goal of the campaign is informational, this wouldn’t constitute monopoly-building, and could even be overseen by the US Department of Education, which has a vested interest in making sure the college market doesn’t shrink.

The magic recipe of 15 students didn’t generate the results it was capable of for one reason—in the end, most people didn’t really care about fixing the problem.  The difference with the birthrate decline is that a lack of students means more than a few colleges will wither, or even die.  That would be a shame, but the only way to get something different is to do something different.  Are colleges wise enough to realize this, and innovate?

Tulane Early Decision Applicants Notified of Decisions on December 1

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Exciting news just in from Tulane.

The Tulane admissions team is a bit ahead of schedule with reviewing applications and as a result Tulane Early Decision 1 notifications will go out tomorrow, December 1, at 4:00 p.m. Central (New Orleans) Time. Updates will be posted to students’ Green Wave Portal, and physical letters are also on their way.

There is also a bit of a change in what type of decisions students may receive: some ED applicants will be deferred and released from their ED Agreement. In recent years Tulane has focused on simply accepting or rejecting ED applicants. Deferred applicants will be read again in the regular round before getting a final decision in Spring 2023. Such students can also be considered for Tulane’s Spring Scholar cohort. There will be a form on the Green Wave Portal on which a deferred ED student can indicate an interest in the Spring Scholar program.

In past years, Tulane would admit the vast majority of its Spring Scholars at this time. This year, Tulane is admitting a smaller group for now and will reassess when it sees the pool of deferred ED and EA students in the spring. Deferred ED students cannot switch to Tulane’s ED 2 plan.

Meanwhile, Early Action applicants will hear back from Tulane no later than January 15, but Tulane is trying to notify these students of their decisions earlier than scheduled as well.

Tulane Early Action Admit Rate Plummets to 10%

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Jeff Schiffman, Tulane’s former director of undergraduate admission, may be gone, but elements of his transparent approach live on as Tulane has recently shared some interesting data points relating to its Early Decision and Early Action admits for its undergraduate Class of 2026.

Decisions for Tulane Early Decision applicants were released on November 22 and decisions for Early Action applicants will be released on Monday, December 20 at 5:00 p.m. EST. According to Owen Knight, Tulane’s Director of Admission Engagement, the university expects between fifty-five and fifty-eight percent of next year’s freshman class to be comprised of Early Decision students. Due to the fact that Tulane over-enrolled last year and saw a twenty-five percent increase in the percentage of students accepting the offer of admission over the previous year, Tulane will be admitting a jaw-dropping 1,650 fewer Early Action (EA) applicants this year. This will speed up a trend of EA at Tulane becoming hyper-selective, especially relative to how the admissions plan used to be at Tulane prior to Tulane bringing back ED a few years ago.

As a result, Tulane anticipates marginally more offers of admission for deferred students and Regular Decision applicants than in the past. The overall admission rate for Early Action applicants is just ten percent, which is half the EA admission rate in 2017.

Overall, Tulane is planning for its Class of 2026 freshman class to be roughly 1,750 students.

Forty-six percent of Tulane’s Early Action admitted students for the Class of 2026 identify as BIPOC, which is a 70% increase, over twenty-seven percent of students who identified as such in 2017.

Knight also notes that Early Decision II is currently available through January 12 for students who are starting a new application for admission or for students who have already applied Early Action. Students who have already applied may switch to EDII via their Green Wave portals.

 

 

 

What Needs to Change in College Admissions

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The ups and downs of the quarantine gave college admissions officers and school counselors a taste of application life to come, as the birth rate for high school graduates continues to slide, and the need to develop new approaches to recruit students increases.  As the profession continues to try and improve college access, and knowing that small differences can make a big difference, here are some considerations for both sides of the desk to ponder this summer over a well-deserved glass of lemonade:

Colleges—move your deadline dates.  November 1 (early applications), January 1 (regular applications), and May 1 (many deposits) are all big dates in the college application world—and they all fell on a Sunday or a holiday this year.  I don’t understand this, since the admissions offices weren’t open, and the vast majority of high school seniors had no access to counselors or other application helpers the day of and before the deadlines.

This needs to change.  Yes, students need to be responsible, and should learn to plan ahead—but perhaps that lesson is better applied to deadlines for things they’ve done before (like papers), not with things they are doing for the first time (like applying to college).  The first Tuesday in November, the second Tuesday in January, and the first Tuesday in May would solve this problem nicely, increasing the quality and quantity of applications to boot. Georgia Tech made the move, and they get kaboodles of applications.  It’s an easy, but important, change.

High Schools—stop working holidays.  Moving the January 1 deadline to a date when high schools are in session is also overdue for school counselors, who have taken a serious shellacking this year with all the student mental health issues arising from COVID.  School counselors have always been overworked, but never able to use the December holidays to recover, since they were expected to help their students make January 1 college deadlines.

It’s time to take a stand.  Assuming the colleges move their deadlines, counselors need to learn to let go.  Send a note to all senior families early in November, letting them know your vacation is—well, a vacation.  If you really can’t let go of your students for that long—or if the colleges unwisely cling to January 1– set two days of vacation for online office hours, and take a breath all the other days.  You have mastered online office hours this year.  Let them be your friend.

Colleges—keep innovating.  One (and perhaps the only) upside of the quarantine was the ability of college admissions offices to adapt major chunks of their traditional approach to recruitment. Test optional, drive-thru tours, and online high school visits suggested it might be OK for everyone to get their hopes up, that some real college admissions reform was in the air.

Yes.  Well.

In a post-vaccine world, we see more signs of returning to “normal” than creating new normal.  Reinventing the entire admissions process is no easy feat, to be sure, but how hard might it be for admissions offices to spend half a day this summer doing “What ifs” to one part of the application process?  Do that for five years, and you have a new admissions paradigm, and a more accessible one—the thing you say you keep wanting.

High schools— mental health and college access aren’t either/or.  I will legitimately blow my top if I read one more post from a high school counselor insisting that the increase in COVID-related mental health needs makes it impossible to do any effective college counseling.

School counseling as a profession has long been showing a mental health bias at the expense of quality college counseling, and this year just seems to have widened the gap.   Counselor training programs plant the seeds of this bias— training programs devote about 7 classes to mental health training, and none to college counseling—and all of this must stop, if only because the dichotomy is a false one.

Discouraged, depressed high school students light up like a hilltop church on Christmas Eve when I tell them college gives them a fresh start to life and learning, proof enough that college counseling affects mental health.  That, plus the American School Counselor Association says college counseling is part of the job.  Counselors truly are overworked, so they can’t do everything they want in any part of counseling.  That said, college can still be part of a key to a better self.  More counselors need to see that, and act on it.

Everyone—stop beating up on the Ivies.  The Ivies and their equally tough-to-get-into institutions largely decided to go test optional this year.  For some reason, this gave a lot of students with B averages the hope that they too could pahk the cah in the yahd, now that they didn’t have to reveal their test scores.

So—more students applied to the Ivies this year than last year.  The Ivies didn’t admit more students this year than last year.  That means their admit rate had to go down, and more students were denied.

That isn’t news—it’s math.  And if you want to blame the Ivies for encouraging students to apply who didn’t really stand a chance of getting in, you’re going to need to make a thousand more jackets for that club.  If you think the Ivies take too few Pell-eligible students, say that.  If you think they admit too many legacies, stay that.  But don’t beat them up for proving the laws of basic ratios.  Any other college in their shoes would have to do the same thing. (Besides, it’s the national media who has left our society with the impression that there are only 25 colleges in America.)

Everyone—about Kiddos.  It’s no secret that college is largely a time of youth, especially with the expansion of adolescence into the early twenties and beyond. But college is also a time to help young people embrace the opportunities of adulthood, skills and attitudes that sometimes require setting the desires of self to one side.

This goal would be more easily achieved if we saw students—and if they saw themselves– as capable of embracing a larger sense of self by referring to them as students, not Kiddos.  They don’t need to grow up in a hurry or, with the right kind of help, succumb to the media images of college choice as a high stakes pressure cooker.  But they also need something more than just a pat on the head and a verbal affirmation that’s the equivalent of a lollipop. Let’s try calling them students.

Amherst Shares Latest Admissions Stats

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Amherst College received 857 Early Decision (ED) applicants this admissions cycle, which represents a forty-three percent increase over last year. This led to a twenty-five percent ED admit rate, which is down from a thirty-two percent ED admit rate last year.

This news came from Cate Granger Zolkos, Amherst’s Dean of Admission. As a result of the application increase, Amherst expects forty-five percent of its Class of 2025 will be drawn from its ED admits (up from thirty-nine percent last year). Meanwhile, 13,930 students applied to Amherst Regular Decision (a thirty-one percent increase over last year).

In other news, Amherst has announced that for domestic Early Decision applicants this fall, a whopping forty-five percent applied without testing (test-optional) and a full thirty-nine percent of Amherst’s ED admits were test-optional. Among all Regular Decision applicants, forty-nine percent have applied test-optional. With the applications flooding in, Amherst will continue to be test-optional for high school seniors applying during the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 admissions cycles.

At some point before the 2023-2024 admissions cycle Amherst will evaluate whether the test-optional policy will remain in place permanently.

What to make of Tufts’ Early Decision Deadline Extension

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While occasionally colleges extend application deadlines in response to hurricanes or other natural disasters, Tufts’ announcement in October that it would extend its Early Decision I (EDI) deadline from November 1 to November 17 in response to COVID-19 and various natural disasters didn’t pass the smell test.

It’s one thing to be or appear charitable by giving struggling students a few extra days or a week to complete their applications; yet, giving every applicant seventeen extra days to submit applications EDI is an extreme act that reeked of desperation.

Now, we are getting Common App data that supports our suspicions.

Inside Higher Ed shared that Common Application colleges are seeing average application declines of eight percent this fall. Meanwhile applications for first-generation students and those eligible for fee waivers are down sixteen percent so far. A full sixty percent of Common App colleges are seeing application declines. In addition Common App colleges and universities in the Northeast and Midwest experienced the steepest declines in application volume – down a full fourteen percent compared to last year.

While we don’t yet know if Tufts is one of the schools with application declines, by pushing its EDI deadline out nearly three weeks the university is signaling that it at least wanted more EDI applications to review for some reason (it could be a dip in application numbers, some other internal application target not being met by late October, and/or just the desire to make more money – after all, Tufts does charge $75/application).

This was all expected and is one of the main reasons why colleges were so fast to go SAT- or ACT-optional for members of the high school class of 2021. Colleges rightly worried that pandemic closure-induced job/income losses and the ongoing pandemic itself would scare students away from wanting to live and learn in close quarters far from home. This is an acute worry at second tier or lower colleges that cost a pretty penny to attend. Interestingly, with so many colleges now SAT- and ACT-optional it is likely that the biggest name colleges are benefitting most from the test-optional trend while others like Tufts that have more limited name-brand appeal are more likely to be overlooked by students newly-emboldened to apply to reach colleges they would have never considered if their SAT or ACT scores were any good.

For instance, let’s say you are a straight A student with a 1010 on the SAT; in a typical year you would never apply to anything other than your state university an a few others with relatively low test score averages. This year, you say to yourself, “I might as well put in an app or two to Harvard and Yale since they won’t look at my scores.” Notice how Tufts (or other similar schools) was not mentioned in such a hypothetical student’s line of reasoning. That’s because most college applicants have never heard of Tufts. Those who have are also probably holding off on applying EDI to Tufts when the school also offers EDII. This is because many typical EDI Tufts applicants are now going to try and swing for the fences at Brown, Penn, Princeton, or Harvard. Tufts likely finds itself in a doughnut hole of a situation.

January 2021 Update: Tufts is thrilled with itself because overall it got thirty-five percent more applications this admissions cycle compared to last year. Yet, in Tufts’ self-congratulatory press release, Tufts attempts to memory hole the fact that pushing back its ED deadline nearly three weeks probably played at least a small role in the increase. The main driver, of course, was Tufts’s decision to go test-optional, which resulted in HALF of Tufts applicants this cycle opting not to submit ACT or SAT scores with their applications! It will be interesting to learn what percentage of those accepted ultimately did or did not submit their SAT or ACT scores. As things stand now, it’s pretty clear that Tufts simply wanted to drive up its perceived selectivity as much as possible by driving down its top line acceptance rate and used test-optional applicants to do so. Should Tufts ultimately accept a significant percentage of its Class of 2025 via the test-optional pathway, how selective can Tufts really be considered? Maybe its acceptance rate will plummet, but, objectively, it will no longer be a college that prizes academic excellence above many other factors. This is because assessing a student by his or her grades in high school as the only measure of academic achievement denies reality that is obvious to most astute observers: most American high schools have become environments of rampant grade inflation and short-term self-esteem boosting and very little more. While SAT and ACT scores are imperfect measures of academic excellence, they are a least objective standardized measures that allow colleges to compare what applicants know upon submitting their application regardless of what curriculum applicants experienced in high school. Test optional colleges may still reject more students than they accept, but what they are basing their admissions decisions on is more akin to what those holding a velvet rope at a night club base their admissions decisions on than any sort of academic achievement metric.

Making a Calm College Decision

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This is typically the week many high school seniors are a little tense about their college plans.  The last few colleges are sending out decisions this week, and they tend to be the colleges where the admit rates are a little less than getting struck by lightning, so the hopes are high, while the odds remain low.

Now that the big week is finally here, here’s a quick list of things you should focus on to make a quality decision for life after high school:

What you do with the college experience matters more than where you go.  Most counselors save this advice for the end of articles like this, but these are unusual times. Chances are, if you’ve applied to a highly selective school, you have what it takes to do well there—it’s just that the college runs out of room before they run out of great applicants.  This means that the talents, habits, interests, and way you look at the world has prepared you to do great things wherever you go.  The college you attend won’t automatically make you a success; that will still be up to you.  So your future will still be in your hands, no matter what the colleges have to say this week.

It looks like another record breaking year. There are fewer students graduating from high school this year, but that isn’t keeping many colleges from seeing new highs in applications—and some that are seeing declines are still admitting less than 20 percent of their applicants.  Combined with an increase in the number of students many colleges took through early action and early decision plans, that leaves precious few seats to give out this week.

Yes, No, or Maybe, read the entire letter.  A student I am close to—OK, it’s my son—was so happy to read he was admitted to his first choice school he didn’t bother to read page 2 of the acceptance letter.  I did, and it’s a good thing, since it included information on the merit scholarship that made his attendance their possible.  Other yes letters have information about when deposits are due, and those are important as well.

Letters that waitlist you are even more important to read, since staying on the list may require you to do something—email, send back a card, update your application—by a specific date.  Even the letters of denial could give you information about transfer options that may now come into play.  So read the letter from start to finish, and have a parent do the same.

Read, and update, your financial aid information.  There’s a good chance all your colleges are going to be sending financial aid packages this week.  These are based on the financial aid information you gave them two months ago, when the world was a quiet place, before the stock market lost 30 percent of its value—and possibly before you or your parents lost their job.

The only way a college will know your financial picture has changed is if you tell them, and this is college—so it’s not time to be shy.  Pick up the phone, call financial aid, tell them your new story, and be ready to send supporting documents.   You’re this close to making the dream real.  Keep working.

File financial aid for the first time.  It’s certainly true most colleges have given all their aid away to students who applied for it in February, but many of those students turn down packages, or go to a different school.  If you now need help paying for college, get the forms in yesterday—check the college’s website to find out all the forms they need, and where you should send them.  Calling to ask is an even better idea.

Ask for an extension to the May 1 deposit.  Many colleges understand that this spring isn’t exactly normal, which is why they are moving their deposit deadlines to June 1 or later.  If your college isn’t doing that, you can still call and request an extension for personal reasons.  They might say no, but the only way they say yes is because you ask—kind of like the only way they admitted you is because you applied. Make. The. Call.

Apply to more colleges.  Except for the Top 50, every college in this country is still taking applications for fall admission—and, as mentioned before, some will still have financial aid to offer you.  If you’re looking at changing your college plans due to all the changes in the world, lots of colleges are eager to hear from you for the first time…

Consider transferring …and thanks to some pretty strong transfer options, you could still end up graduating from your dream school, even if you can’t start there.  The best way to plan a transfer is to call the college where you want to finish, and ask about transfer options.  Building the plan from the end means you know where to start, and what classes are best to take to minimize the credits you’ll lose when you make the shift.  Ask for transfer admissions when you call.

Talk to your counselor.  One upside of all of this is that counselors now have more time than ever to talk college with you, since they don’t have to do lunch duty.  I know, I know—they have 8,000 students on their caseload, and they might not know you well.  They will once you tell them who you are, and what you need—and that window is now more wide open than ever before.  Most schools have sent students direction on how to reach out to counselors.  As is the case with most things in life, what you do with that information is now up to you.

Boston College Regular Decision Acceptance Rate Now 22%

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Boston College will notify Regular Decision applicants of their admissions decisions via email on Thursday evening, March 19, 2020. Admitted students in the United States will be mailed acceptance packets in the days that follow. Admitted students with permanent addresses overseas, and those not earning admission, will receive email notifications only.

Boston College had 1,325 spots to fill from a Regular Decision applicant pool of 26,700. To hit its enrollment goals, BC produced a Regular Decision acceptance rate of twenty-two percent. The mean composite SAT for Regular Decision admits was 1467 and the mean composite ACT score was 34. Admitted students come from forty-nine U.S. states and two US territories and seventy-eight different countries.

Overall, Boston College received roughly 29,400 applications for 2,325 openings in the Class of 2024. One thousand of these spaces were filled via Early Decision, which resulted in an ED admissions rate of thirty-seven percent. BC switched from Early Action to Early Decision during this admissions cycle. Last year, BC’s overall acceptance rate (when it offered EA and RD) was twenty-seven percent.

Meanwhile, BC will offer 6,500 students a spot on it waiting list, which the university acknowledges, “feels large;” yet, BC felt it “necessary given the many uncertainties facing society this year.”

Tulane Shares Class of 2024 Early Decision and Early Action Stats

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Tulane University has shared news about its Class of 2024 applicants who applied Early Decision and Early Action.

Tulane received 27% more Early Decision applicants this cycle compared to last cycle, according to Jeff Schiffman, Tulane’s Director of Admission.

“For an estimated freshman class of around 1,875 students, we admitted 631 students under our Early Decision I plan, for slightly over one-third of the incoming class.  Of our ED group 30% were students of color or international.” added Schiffman. That latter statistic is a thirty percent increase since 2016.

Meanwhile, Tulane also admitted 3,725 students under its non-binding Early Action round of admission.

To put the most recent numbers in greater context, Schiffman shared that in, “2017, the percentage of students who accepted Tulane’s offer of admission (the yield rate) was 25.4%. Because this percentage increased to 34.0% by 2019, we have not been able to offer admission to as many students as we have in the past. Over these same years, the admission rate decreased from 21.2% to 12.87%. The average number of enrolled students in the freshman class over the past five years was 1,875, and we are planning for a class of a similar size this year.”

When sharing information about Tulane’s Early Decision stats for the latest admissions cycle Schiffman did not differentiate between Tulane’s Early Decision I (EDI) and Early Decision II (EDII) numbers. While Tulane has offered EDII of late, it doesn’t regularly publicize EDII as an application option until late in any given calendar year.

If you got into Tulane, well done! Have you bought some Tulane swag yet?

Villanova Releases Early Action Stats for Class of 2024

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Villanova University’s Michael M. Gaynor, Executive Director of Undergraduate Admission, has shared news this morning as the university releases its Early Action decisions later today.

According to Gaynor, Villanova received 13,353 Early Action applications for its Class of 2024. When all was said and done, Villanova’s Early Action admit rate for this admissions cycle was 25.3%.

Gaynor indicated that of those accepted to Villanova EA this cycle, the middle 50% weighted GPA on a traditional 4.00 scale was between 4.20 and 4.53, the middle 50% of SAT scores were between 1420 and 1510, and the middle 50% of ACT scores were between 32 and 34.

Meanwhile, earlier this admissions cycle Villanova received 1,053 Early Decision applications and the university anticipates that approximately 36% of its Class of 2024 will be accepted Early Decision. As of this time, Villanova has not provided its ED acceptance rate for this admissions cycle.

Villanova became quite selective two years ago when it instituted Early Decision for the first time. Yet, this admissions cycle, even the most hyper-selective colleges have experienced application declines and/or acceptance rate increases ED/REA/SCEA.

If you got into Villanova, well done! Now celebrate, by wearing your college colors!